Dr Felicia Eng’s PhD in mathematics has helped her build a career at IBM. Her PhD research used game theory to explain how people make decisions when evacuating from a bushfire. The connections she built were a highlight of her University of Melbourne experience and a key to many opportunities she has had in her career.
How game theory can help evacuate people during disasters
Dr Eng’s PhD research examined how people make evacuation decisions during disasters. As a mathematician, she collaborated with researchers in computer sciences and geospatial sciences, including researchers at RMIT University and the Australian National University.
As the planet warms, we’re likely to experience more disasters like bushfires and floods. How can we make sure that as many people as possible get to safety?
“Understanding human behaviour is really critical,” says Dr Eng.
Dr Eng looked at people’s evacuation decisions during the 2009 Black Saturday bushfires in Yarra Glen. There were only four roads out of town – and one was blocked by the advancing fire.
If you were leaving a town threatened by a bushfire, would you follow where everyone else is going? Using game theory, Dr Eng could describe how people’s decisions interacted.
“In game theory, what I choose to do will affect what you choose to do. Therefore, what you choose to do will then affect what I will choose to do. There’s this feedback loop,” she says.
Understanding why people make decisions and based on what information can guide future evacuations. It will help policymakers understand how to help people evacuate as fast as possible.
“It’s not an easy space to write policy for, because sometimes there are ethical consequences that need to be considered. You can’t just tell one person, ‘You should go a longer way. Even though it may be worse for you, it’s better for everyone as a whole,’” Dr Eng says.